1st Feb 2012 at 21:44 | By Collin Roth
About That “1 Million Signatures” Number…
By Collin Roth
According to the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, over 1 million signatures were turned in to recall Governor Scott Walker. No one has yet to confirm the total number of signatures turned into the Government Accountability Board, let alone how many are actually valid.
But, according to the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board we do know 152,336 Scott Walker recall petition pages were turned in two weeks ago.
Simple math would show that using the round number of 1 million, the average number of signatures per page would have to come out to a minimum of 6.56 (most recall petition pages have space for 10 names, some only 5). If the number is higher than 1 million (as Democrats claim), that would drive up the average number of signatures per page up (1.1 million would make the average number of signatures per page 7.22). A look through many of the recall petitions show many with all 10 lines filled while many have as few as just 1 or 2 names.
For perspective, the recall petitions for the four Republican State Senators show the average number of signatures per page below 6 names per page.
- Sen. Terry Moulton- 4.1 signatures per page
- Sen. Pam Galloway- 4.44 signatures per page
- Sen. Scott Fitzgerald- 5.19 signatures per page
- Sen. Van Wanggaard- 5.86 signatures per page
If the average number of signatures is any less that the 6.56 signatures per page, this could drastically reduce the number of actual signatures turned into the GAB:
- If the average is 6 names per page, this would leave 914,016 signatures
- If the average is 5.5 names per page, this would leave 837,848 signatures
- If the average is 5 names per page, this would leave 761,680 signatures
- If the average is 4.5 names per page, this would leave 685,512 signatures
This is not to say that it is impossible for the Recall Walker petitions to reach an average of 6.56 signatures per page. There was no doubt a higher level of enthusiasm for the Walker recall than the State Senate recalls. But it remains a fact that nobody truly knows yet how many signatures were turned in to recall Governor Walker. Let alone, valid signatures.
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Discussion | 15 Comments on "About That “1 Million Signatures” Number…"
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Robert Earle said
Feb 1, 2012 at 10:26 PM
There are also at least 23 pdf files (that I have noticed, through the first 100K petitions) which the GAB failed to post.
petitions
4301-4350
25201-25250
11601-12500 (18 consecutive pdf files)
40801-40850
46951-47000
92851-92900
So that’s (At least) an additional 11500 or so petition pages that (I assume) are not included in your total.
Robert Earle said
Feb 1, 2012 at 11:02 PM
One “watchdog-y” thing you could do (or I guess could have done, now) is pick a half-dozen or whatever pdf files, add them up, and see what the average is for those, to see whether 6.5 is in the ballpark.
Here, let me get you started:
pdf of 50 petitions
starting with 25001 – 433 signatures
starting with 50001 – 340 signatures
starting with 75001 – 344 signatures
starting with 100001 – 317 signatures
That’s a total of 1434 on 200 petitions, or an average of 7.17 per page.
(Of course, I could have counted or added wrong here or there..)
Jay Bee said
Feb 2, 2012 at 10:18 PM
I took 10 at random and came up with 5.1 signatures per page.
101-150 -139 signatures/54 pages (some had an A and a B page)
7401-7450 – 361/50
22101-22150 – 427/50
38551-38650 – 371/50
75951-76050 – 207/50
84601-84650 – 267/50
92251-92300 – 51/51 (yes, these were all singles)
108701-108750 – 197/50
120001-120050 – 312/50
131001-131050 – 249/50
2581 signatures/505 pages
That works out to 5.110891 per page
I used 155,500 pages because of those A and B pages that I saw going through. That totals 794,743.6. A lot, but certainly not 1,000,000. And I did not discount any as being disqualified.
mike said
Feb 1, 2012 at 11:53 PM
The first 500 pages of the Walker recall petitions contained 2,188 signatures, for an average of 4.376 per page. 152,300 pages were turned in, which, if the average holds up, means there are 666,465 signatures. Far less than one million the left likes to claim. If we see fraud and invalid signatures similar to the Ohio recall, 29%, then the number of valid signatures is only 473,190, which is not enough to force a recall, and could save the state oner $9 million.
Dick Keller said
Feb 2, 2012 at 5:07 PM
I was a Republican recal verifier. The real fraud in this whole mess is the Wisconsin State Constitution, Article XIII – Voter Nullification Act. The GAB implementation gives unverified “qualified electors” a power of 4 advantage over legally registered voters in a recall.
Robert Earle said
Feb 2, 2012 at 6:13 PM
The phrase “qualified electors” doesn’t arise out of the GAB’s implementation, it is part of the Constitution itself.
Article XIII, Section 12: “The qualified electors of the
state, of any congressional, judicial or legislative district or of any county may petition for the recall of any incumbent elective officer….”
http://legis.wisconsin.gov/rsb/unannotated_wisconst.pdf
Mack said
Feb 5, 2012 at 5:17 PM
Article XIII, Section 12: of the WI Constitution guarantees fraud and pandering as elected official’s are encouraged to make popular decisions instead of decisions that are in the best interest of the people. No wonder the unions have been able to steal from the taxpayers with impunity.
Norine Peardon said
Feb 5, 2012 at 1:06 AM
Judging by the quality of the printing and handwriting, I feel strongly that many children (under 18) have also signed the recall petitions.
GA said
Feb 5, 2012 at 3:36 AM
I’ve been suspicious of the same thing, especially when listed next to someone with the same last name. it is possible these are folks with disabilities or the elderly, so it’s hard to say.
I love Wisconsin said
Feb 5, 2012 at 11:17 AM
Based on my rough calculations, I don’t see how they can have anywhere near the millions signatures, even if you add in the bogus signatures. This is going to be very embarrassing for the unions for sure. That’s what I expected, but the cost to the state is the real crime in all this.
Robert Earle said
Feb 5, 2012 at 6:58 PM
I’m curious about something….
Is it the case that
A) you guys think while the Recall organizers had the petitions, they didn’t bother to count how many signatures were there, and ‘a million’ is just a guess?
Or is it that
B) you think they counted, they know it isn’t a ‘a million’, and they were just bluffing in hopes that nobody else would count them?
Gary said
Feb 6, 2012 at 12:54 AM
I would say they were making an ‘educated’ guess, just like they used ‘educated’ handwriting to sign the petitions.
Jay Bee said
Feb 6, 2012 at 2:31 PM
My issue is with the Democrats and their spokespeople who have repeatedly said in essence “There is such a sheer volume, why bother counting or verifying the signatures”. So based on that I would say the answer to your question is B.
On the other hand, it took me such a short time to prove that the numbers were low, I can’t see how the Dems screwed it up (unless it was intentional).
Robert Earle said
Feb 6, 2012 at 3:45 PM
“… to prove that the numbers were low…”
I don’t think this word means what you think it means.