Why Did Baldwin Warn Supporters About MU Law School Poll?

An email sent to supporters of U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s campaign sent out Wednesday morning warned recipients that the University Marquette Law Poll may show a much closer race than last month, and asked supporters to donate to the cause. However, when released,  the MU Law Poll showed Baldwin growing a ten point lead over Republican state Senator Leah Vukmir  from last month to 11 points.

The email  warned of a possibly rapidly closing race and urged supporters to donate to the campaign:

“This morning we’re getting ready for what could be the final poll of this critical campaign from Marquette University and all signs point to a rapidly narrowing race. Between right-wing outside money and Donald Trump visiting, there’s a real chance our lead has evaporated.

“…Across the country, Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate majority have ticked up. There’s no reason to think that’s not the case here. We’re staring at the numbers all day and we can tell you: there’s no “blue wave” if we don’t fight for every single vote. Your donation now will let us enact our full Get Out the Vote program — ensuring that no matter what this final poll says, we can win on Election Day.”

However, hours later after the email was sent to supporters, the MU Law poll reported 54% for Baldwin, 43% for Vukmir among likely voters, with Baldwin gaining one point since the early MU Law October poll. The email warning supporters of a closed gap could possibly mean that internal polling from the Baldwin campaign differs from the MU Law Poll and does indeed show a tighter race(the email does say “we’re staring at the numbers all day…”). Or, it could have been an effort to raise more funds by suggesting with no evidence the lead had “evaporated.” Baldwin also may be concerned about the voter complacency that could come with belief that she has a commanding lead.